Robinhood Makes Prediction Market Push With Purchase of Former FTX Platform LedgerX

Robinhood (HOOD), in conjunction with Jeff Yass' Susquehanna International Group (SIG), looking to boost its presence in the burgeoning prediction markets business, has agreed to buy 90% of MIAX Derivatives Exchange.

HOOD shares are higher by 8.3% in early Wednesday action following the overnight news.

MIAX is the operator of CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange LedgerX, which it acquired from failed crypto exchange FTX in 2023 for $50 million. MIAX will remain a 10% owner of LedgerX.

"The transaction announced today will provide MIAX with access to the growing prediction markets on an expedited basis," said MIAX CEO Thomas Gallagher in a press release.

Sell-side reaction

Wall Street broker Bernstein said Robinhood’s (HOOD) decision to enter prediction markets directly through a joint venture with Susquehanna signals how central the business has become to the trading app’s growth story.

Robinhood now drives more than half of Kalshi’s trading volume and is pulling in over $300 million in annual recurring revenue from prediction markets, fueled by nine billion contracts traded by more than one million users, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in the Wednesday report.

The analysts argued that by adding its own liquidity, Robinhood can broaden its product mix, lift volumes and boost its take-rate, while still distributing Kalshi contracts alongside its own.

Bernstein also expects outperform-rated Coinbase (COIN) to unveil its prediction-markets product at its Dec. 17 event, though it remains unclear whether the exchange will act mainly as a distributor or build liquidity through a white-label partner.

Polymarket’s newly secured CFTC clearance to launch intermediate markets will further shake up the landscape, giving the international leader a pathway to aggressively expand into U.S. partnerships, the analysts noted.

Prediction markets are evolving into a two-tier structure of liquidity venues and distributors, with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket needing access to larger retail audiences through brokers, crypto exchanges and even blockchain ecosystems like Solana, the report said.

Bernstein argued that Robinhood’s 14 million active traders give it an unmatched demographic fit and the leverage to assert a bigger claim on the sector’s revenue pool.

The broker reaffirmed its outperform rating on Robinhood shares and $160 price target.

Read more: Robinhood’s Crypto Revenue Miss Tempers Solid Quarter: JPMorgan