Share this article
Bitcoin Could Reach $165K Based on Gold's Record Run: JPMorgan
Oct 2, 2025, 12:51 p.m.
What to know:
- On a volatility-adjusted basis relative to gold, JPMorgan estimates bitcoin could rise about 40% to $165,000 from the current $119,000.
- The bank says retail investors are driving the “debasement trade."
- Institutional investors are also participating through CME futures, the report said, but that activity has slowed compared to retail ETF demand.
Banking giant JPMorgan says bitcoin could climb to around $165,000 on a volatility-adjusted basis relative to gold, highlighting what the bank sees as significant upside if the so-called “debasement trade” continues to gain momentum.
The Wall Street lender’s models suggest that bitcoin would need to rise about 40% from current levels to match the scale of private gold holdings once risk is accounted for.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
The world's largest cryptocurrency was trading around $119,000 at publication time.
The debasement trade involves buying assets such as gold or bitcoin to hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies.
The bank's projection comes as retail investors accelerated their embrace of the debasement trade, pouring into both bitcoin and gold exchange-traded funds over the past quarter.
Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted that flows into these products have surged since late 2024, a trend that picked up ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
The analysts framed the trade as a response to long-term inflation concerns, ballooning government deficits, questions about Federal Reserve independence, waning trust in fiat currencies in some emerging markets, and a broader move to diversify away from the U.S. dollar.
Cumulative flows into spot bitcoin and gold ETFs have risen sharply, JPMorgan said, with retail buyers driving much of the activity. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETFs) initially outpaced gold earlier in the year, particularly after “Liberation Day,” but gold ETF inflows have been catching up since August, narrowing the gap.
Institutional investors have also been participating, according to JPMorgan, though mainly via Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) bitcoin and gold futures rather than ETFs. The bank’s proxy based on open interest shows institutions have been net buyers since 2024, but their momentum has recently lagged retail demand.
The steep rise in gold prices over the past month has also bolstered bitcoin’s relative appeal, as the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has drifted below 2.0. That shift underscores the bank’s view that bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold, with its current price about $50,000 below where JPMorgan’s model suggests it should be.
Read more: When Could Bitcoin Break Out to New Highs? Watch Out for Gold
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
More For You
What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
More For You
Bitcoin gets 'base case' price target of $143,000 at Citigroup
The Wall Street bank said its bitcoin forecast relies on further crypto ETF inflows and a continued rally in traditional equity markets.
What to know:
- Citigroup's base case for bitcoin (BTC) is a rise to $143,000 in 12 months.
- Analysts highlight $70,000 as key support, with the potential for a sharp rise due to revived ETF demand and positive market forecasts.
- The bear case sees bitcoin falling to $78,500 amid a global recession, while the bull case predicts a rise to $189,000 due to increased investor demand.
Top Stories
