Share this article
Bitcoin to $200K by End of 2025? This Cycle Indicator Points to Explosive Months Ahead
On-chain valuation puts the key threshold at the Trader’s Realized Price of $116,000, and a multiweek break above that could set the stage for $200,000.
Updated Oct 3, 2025, 4:41 a.m. Published Oct 3, 2025, 4:41 a.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin demand has been increasing since July, potentially setting up for a late-year rally to over $200,000.
- Large holders and ETFs are driving demand, with significant increases in BTC holdings compared to previous years.
- A price move above $116,000 is crucial for transitioning into a bull market phase, with potential valuations between $160,000 and $200,000.
Bitcoin demand has been quietly expanding since July, setting the stage for what could be another late-year rally to over $200,000
Apparent demand has grown at a rate of roughly 62,000 BTC per month, according to CryptoQuant, a backdrop similar to Q4 of 2020, 2021 and 2024 when prices staged sharp moves higher.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Sustained growth in demand has historically served as one of the backdrops for price rallies to occur,
Much of that expansion is being driven by whales and ETFs. Large-holder balances are rising at an annualized pace of 331,000 BTC, a stronger trend than the 255,000 BTC recorded in Q4 2024, the 238,000 BTC at the start of Q4 2020, and a sharp contrast to the 197,000 BTC contraction that marked the weaker market in 2021.
ETFs could add another layer as the products bought 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024, a 71% jump in holdings, and may be positioned to increase allocations into year-end.
For that demand to translate into another breakout, momentum on the price side is still critical. On-chain valuation puts the key threshold at the Trader’s Realized Price of $116,000.
A decisive move above that level would mark the transition back into the “BULL” phase of the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator and could open up a valuation band of $160,000 to $200,000 for Q4.
The indicator compares bitcoin’s current market price with several realized price metrics — the average cost basis of different groups of investors recorded on-chain.
When spot price climbs above those levels, the model interprets it as a shift into the “bull” phase, reflecting rising momentum and profits across the holder base. When spot price falls below, it flags the “bear” phase, signaling stress and unrealized losses.
Market conditions entering October look strikingly similar to last year.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has held between 40 and 50 in recent days, levels that historically mark the edge of bullish conditions. In 2024, the index broke above 50 at the start of Q4, just before bitcoin surged from around $70,000 to $100,000.
With demand metrics already strengthening, traders are watching closely for a repeat of that pattern in the months ahead.
More For You
L1 tokens broadly underperformed in 2025 despite a backdrop of regulatory and institutional wins. Explore the key trends defining ten major blockchains below.
What to know:
2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns.
This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026.
More For You
Bitcoin trails polar opposites, gold and copper, as 'fear and AI' trade lifts tangible assets
Gold and copper have outperformed other major assets this year, with gold rallying more than copper.
What to know:
- Gold and copper have outperformed other major assets this year, with gold rallying more than copper.
- Bitcoin has underperformed, failing to attract both fear-driven and AI-driven investment, highlighting a shift towards tangible assets.
- The divergence in performance between gold and copper reflects market bets on both AI-driven growth and systemic financial fears.
Top Stories
