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A Slowing of Grayscale Bitcoin Fund Inflows Could Prompt Price Correction: JPMorgan

Digital asset investment firm Grayscale is sucking up so much bitcoin it could sway prices.

Updated Sep 14, 2021, 10:46 a.m. Published Dec 21, 2020, 10:14 a.m.
Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein.
Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein.

JPMorgan strategists have said the odds of a bitcoin correction would rise if flows into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust slow down dramatically.

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  • Such a drop in flows into the largest bitcoin fund would increase the likelihood of a price correction similar to the one seen in the second half of 2019, according to a note from the bank's quantitative strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, as reported by Bloomberg Monday.
  • The digital asset manager's bitcoin inflows “are too big to allow any position unwinding by momentum traders to create sustained negative price dynamics,” the strategists said.
  • They stopped short of saying bitcoin is overbought after the cryptocurrency soared to consecutive record highs in recent weeks.
  • The most recent data tweeted by Grayscale Investments showed the firm reached $15.5 billion in cryptocurrency assets under management on Dec. 18 – up $2 billion in less than a month. Its Bitcoin Trust is now worth over $13 billion of that total.
  • Bitcoin hit a new record price of $24,273 on Sunday. At the time of publication, prices were lower at around $23,450.
  • New York-based Grayscale is owned by Digital Currency Group, the parent company of CoinDesk. The firm allows institutional investors to buy shares in its crypto trusts, gaining exposure to the asset class without having to own the asset directly.

Also see: MassMutual’s Bitcoin Buy May Presage $600B Institutional Flood: JPMorgan

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A year-end options expiry for bitcoin is suppressing volatility just as macro and risk-asset positioning turns supportive for a higher price.

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  • Bitcoin has spent the majority of December pinned between $85,000 and $90,000.
  • That range has been enforced by dealer hedging tied to heavy options exposure, with dips bought near $85,000 and rallies sold near $90,000.
  • Some $27 billion of open interest are set to expire on Deribit with a strong call bias, and options mechanics point to a resolution toward the higher end as the more likely outcome.