Share this article
Bitcoin Hits Most Oversold Level Against Gold in 3 Years as BTC Risks Falling Below $100K
The BTC/Gold ratio looks most oversold since November 2022, according to the RSI indicator.
Updated Oct 17, 2025, 2:31 p.m. Published Oct 17, 2025, 10:26 a.m.
What to know:
- The BTC/Gold ratio looks most oversold since Noveber 2022, according to the RSI indicator.
- Oversold readings do not necessarily promise immediate bullish reversal.
This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
As bitcoin's price wilts, bulls are pinning hopes on a potential rotation of money from the still-rallying gold to its digital counterpart.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
These hopes may get a boost as price charts show bitcoin's per piece dollar-denominated price is now at its most oversold against gold's per ounce price, according to the widely-tracked 14-day relative strength index (RSI).
The oscillator has dropped to 22.20, dipping just below the February low to levels last seen in November 2022. Readings below 30 are generally interpreted as oversold conditions, indicating that an asset, in this case, BTC, has experienced significant recent selling pressure relative to gold, potentially pushing the ratio between the two to undervalued levels.
However, an oversold RSI reading alone does not guarantee an immediate bullish reversal for BTC against gold. This condition requires confirmation from other technical indicators, such as signs of downtrend exhaustion in price action, bullish divergences, or increased buying volume. Without these supporting signals, the oversold status may persist during strong downward trends, meaning the price could continue falling despite the low RSI level.
As of writing, the bitcoin-gold ratio remains in a pronounced downtrend, marked by prominent red candles that highlight seller dominance amid the recently confirmed death cross—the bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA).
Given this bearish technical backdrop, BTC bulls will need to exercise patience and await clearer signs of a trend reversal before expecting a sustained recovery.
BTC/USD looks south
The same can be said about BTC's dollar-denominated price as it looks set to test the lower end of the expanding channel, presently below $100,000.
The 14-day RSI is yet to hit the oversold territory, and the MACD histogram continues to print deeper bars below the sign, both suggesting scope for the ongoing sell-off to continue. Further, prices seem to have found acceptance under the 200-day SMA, which could spur selling by momentum traders.
With prices below the 200-day SMA, the focus is on the lower boundary of the expanding channel, currently at around $99,500.
The 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $101,700, remains a critical support level for bitcoin. Throughout the bull run starting in early 2023, this moving average has consistently provided a reliable foundation, helping to sustain rallies and propel prices to new highs.
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
More For You
L1 tokens broadly underperformed in 2025 despite a backdrop of regulatory and institutional wins. Explore the key trends defining ten major blockchains below.
What to know:
2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns.
This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026.
More For You
Aave falls 18% over week as dispute pulls down token deeper than major crypto tokens
The move added to selling pressure that had already been building since the governance proposal moved to a Snapshot vote.
What to know:
- AAVE token has dropped 18% in the past week, making it the worst performer among the top 100 cryptocurrencies.
- The decline is likely linked to a governance dispute over control of Aave's brand and public channels.
- Despite founder Stani Kulechov purchasing $12.6 million worth of AAVE, the broader selling pressure continues.
Top Stories
