Why is Bitcoin Trading Lower Today?

Bitcoin BTC$90,193.08, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, is down following the overnight Fed rate cut. The reason likely lies in the Fed's messaging, which has made traders less excited about future easing.

The Fed on Wednesday cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% as expected and announced it will begin purchasing short-term Treasury bills to manage liquidity in the banking system.

Yet, BTC traded below $90,000 at press time, representing a 2.4% decline since early Asian trading hours, according to CoinDesk data. Ether was down 4% at $3,190, with the CoinDesk 20 Index down over 4%.

The risk-off action is likely due to growing signs of internal Fed divisions on balancing inflation control against employment goals, coupled with signals of a more challenging path for future rate cuts.

Two members voted for no change on Wednesday, but individual forecasts revealed that six FOMC members felt that a cut wasn't "appropriate."

Besides, the central bank suggested just one more rate cut in 2026, disappointing expectations for two to three rate cuts.

"The Fed is divided, and the market has no real insight into the future path of rates from now until May 2026, when Chairman Jerome Powell will be replaced. The replacement of Powell with a Trump loyalist (who will push to lower rates aggressively) is likely the most reliable signal for rates. Until then, however, there are still 6 months to go," Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, told CoinDesk.

He added that the most likely occurrence as of now is a needed "deleveraging" or down-market" to convince the Fed of lower rates decidedly.

Shiliang Tang, managing partner of Monarq Asset Management, said BTC is following the stock market lower.

"Crypto markets initially spiked on the news but have steadily moved lower since, in conjunction with stock market futures, with BTC testing but unable to break the local high of $94k for the third time in two weeks," Tang told CoinDesk.

He added that the implied volatility has continued to drift lower with the last major market catalyst for the year behind us.

Liquidity management, not QE

While the crypto community has been quick in calling the Fed's reserve management program the good old quantitative easing (QE) that stoked unprecedented risk-taking in 2020-21, that's not necessarily the case.

The reserve management program involves the Fed purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills. While this does expand its balance sheet, it's done primarily to address liquidity strains in the money markets without committing to balance-sheet expansion or sustained yield suppression.

Traditional QE targeted long-duration Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to aggressively lower long-term yields and inject trillions into the economy, directly boosting liquidity for speculative investments.

Steno Research's Founder Andreas Steno Larsen put it best on X, "This is sadly not Lambo QE. More like ‘my Uber is 7 minutes away’ QE."

Per some observers, the latest program implemented is a pre-emptive strike against potential 2019-like instability in money markets.

"Instead of risking a 2019-style scramble, the Fed is quietly buying a cushion now. It’s simply the Fed making sure the financial system has enough breathing room to get through the spring without something snapping," pseudonymous observer EndGame Macro said.